Friday - January 16, 2004
It's a Generational Thing
My first boss in the Marine Corps and her
husband, also once my boss, sent me this article by William S.
Lind and asked for my opinion of it. Since she is a Marine Corps
Colonel and a graduate of the Naval War College, I was flattered to be asked.
Here's a version of my response.
Mr. Lind is a fuzzy thinker. He creates a false
set of definitions, and then uses these to create arguments and conclusions that
have little relation to reality. He lives in a think tank and his livelihood
depends on him convincing others that he has come up with revolutionary new ways
of looking at the world. He is in the business of selling paradigm shifts, and
it is wise to look carefully before we buy his
wares.First, I don't like Lind's
nomenclature of calling these four "generations" of war, implying a progression
of style of warfare. After spending a few pages saying that war has progressed
through four generations, he ends by claiming that he said no such thing, that
these generations are just styles that come and go. In that characterization,
he is closer to the truth but he is still wrong. He doesn't come out and say it
outright, but he appears to be among those who would get rid of our heavy
military in favor of light, supposedly more mobile forces, forgetting that we
just finished winning a war only because we had those heavy forces and the next
potential enemies, i.e., Iran, Syria, China, North Korea, won't be impressed by
light infantry.Simply put, here are
his "generations:"1st Gen = Line and
column tactics2nd Gen =
Artillery/bombardment tactics3rd Gen =
Maneuver/Blitzkrieg tactics4th Gen =
CultureNotice that Mr. Lind makes no
mention of the importance of siegecraft, a vital part of warfare even today.
For the sake of the reader's time, I won't go into it either except to note that
it hasn't gone away.Let's ignore the
non sequitur of the fourth generation definition and look at the first three for
now. He somehow claims that line and column tactics, in place since time
immemorial, were somehow newly in place in the magic year of 1648 because of the
Treaty of Westphalia. This is preposterous. The Greek Phalanx, the Roman
Legions, and every military since and before used line and column tactics. This
is a factor of human nature, and we have not seen the end of line and column
tactics. As the numbers of people in a war increase, and the military
capability on each side is relatively the same, line and column tactics will be
important again. The definition of a line may change as scale of offensive
power increases, but the concept is the same. That is, armies may not stand
shoulder to shoulder, but the movement of armies in lines and columns, even when
inserted via air mobile, truck mobile, or even water mobile conveyence will
always be important. The degree of
importance of maintaining these formations changes with the enemy capability,
but the concept is the same. That is, in Iraq we had a few very large columns
driving into the Iraqi lines. Because our capability was so much higher than
the Iraqis, we were able to move with much less concern for integrity of lines
or for our lines of communication because the enemy wasn't able to exploit any
chink in our lines. Line and column tactics are and will always be the basis of
any military action and nothing that I have ever seen changes that
reality.What Mr. Lind calls a second
generation is no such thing. Artillery and bombardment only change things in
that weaknesses in the enemy can be created for the lines and columns to
exploit. Stand off weapons can destroy the enemy lines and columns directly, or
the control of those lines by hitting command and control facilities.
Mr. Lind then goes off on a tangent in
his discussion of the third generation, being sure to tell us that he is solely
responsible for the Marines embracing his ideas of maneuver, and telling us that
the only ones to ever understand it fully were the Germans in the Second World
War. So once we get past his promotion of his think tank, we can understand
that maneuver warfare is not new as a concept per se, and I'm sure he would
admit to this. Alexander the Great
used maneuver warfare, as did many other military leaders who were often
referred to by Lind or others in extolling its virtues. What has changed is our
ability to use maneuver warfare in the face of long range weaponry. Our
technology of command and control (C3I or whatever is the latest acronym fad),
our long range logistics capability, and our ability to put all our forces on a
very mobile platform, have significantly enlarged our mobility envelope. It's
the tremendous mobility of our modern military that increases the amount of
terrain available to maneuver in. With our current capability, once they are in
theater we can essentially maneuver heavy land forces within radii of thousands
of miles quickly and easily. Once the troop strength begins to fill the terrain
available, and the two opponents are somewhat evenly matched in capability,
maneuver becomes less potent, and we're back to static lines with fewer columns.
Photo of
Boxster and Tank by Gottfried Hogh
So now we're at today, and Mr. Lind is
in need of promoting his think tank again. He accuses the rest of the world
with not being as smart as he is, so he volunteers his leadership in forming a
seminar. This is nice, except that his ideas are pretty
muddled.He says that we're now in a
fourth generation of war. The problem is that his first three generations,
which are not progressive developments by his own admission later in the essay,
are all about tactics and what he calls the fourth generation is a declaration
of the motivation of why a war is fought. He's absolutely correct that this war
is culturally and religiously motivated (except that it's not politically
correct to ascribe religious motivation to the religious war they are fighting
against us), but this changes nothing about
tactics.Mr. Lind claims that we had a
failure in Afghanistan because we failed to encircle the enemy. This has
nothing to do with fourth generation (whatever that is) and everything to do
with our inability to deploy an expeditionary unit larger than a brigade without
shipping units overland from seaports. If we failed in basic lines and columns,
which he calls first generation, it would have been because we didn't have
enough troops. What is his recommended solution? Less mobility. That is, he
recommends better foot mobility. This is like wanting to be better at rubbing
sticks together when we have a bunch of blow torches at our disposal. I'm not
going to argue that we shouldn't have an infantry that can march long distances
for sustained periods, but this is not the way to out-maneuver an enemy. Moving
by foot puts us in the category of mobility no better than Alexander the Great.
In the age of the automobile and aircraft, this is not a long term
solution.Mr. Lind's entire mushy
discussion of what he recommends in our new so-called fourth generation of war
is correct in calling this a war of culture, but wrong in how to address
it.As with all problems, this one is
best solved by correctly identifying its cause. The war in Iraq that we are
waging against the Ba'athist regime is largely over. Insurgents will be around
for a while, but our tactics and objectives have been effective in neutering the
potency of the old regime. They'll still be around for a while, but their time
is coming to an end. If that were the only problem, we'd be nearly done. It's
mostly a political struggle now.The
problem is that the regime change that we caused has drawn in our real enemies,
as the war was designed in some part to do. The real, long term enemy is
radical Islam. This is a cultural or religious war. Notice that in southern
Iraq now that the Ba'athists wane in power the Shi'ites with Iranian influence
are exerting more muscle. Mr. Lind is
correct that this religious war is a war outside of traditional nation state
definitions. But that is only because we have let nation states off the hook.
We choose not to hold them responsible for the people in their nations. Thus
these people are free to develop their organizations and their religious hatred
and export their violence to Iraq and to other nations, even our own.
This is now again a political and
religious conflict, until we identify the next nation state that we will hold
responsible. We have let this overt jihad to be waged against us without a
response for nearly three decades now, and it has spread throughout the world.
It will take time to conquer it. We are on the right track by felling the
regime most likely to support it with overt malice, and by establishing a free
government in its place. The risk we face there now is not military in nature,
it is political. Solving political problems is much
harder.The will of the people to
support us is related to keeping the jihadist movement down. This has nothing
to do with military capabilities or "generations" of warfare. This is a war of
ideas held in the minds of individuals. These individuals must stop holding
these ideas, or we must kill them. So far, we have a lot of people yet to kill
or convert. Conversion is painstakingly slow, speeded up only by making holding
those ideas more deadly and painful than rejecting them. This will not happen
through military tactics, except in invading nations and changing more and more
regimes. This is our eventual path. We haven't the resources, or more
correctly the will, to do it all at once, our only option is to finish
stabilizing Iraq before destroying the next source of our enemies. Our
occupation of Iraq allows us to threaten to reach out and do this much more
credibly to the other dangerous regimes in the theater. Hopefully, the nation
states harboring these religious fanatics will take heed and eliminate these
ideas before we get to them next.Our
specific tactics in Iraq for now should be to withdraw from overt presence as
much as is feasible and become as unnoticed as possible by the population as we
can while at the same time destroying those who subvert the
peace.We need no paradigm shift or Mr.
Lind's poor ideas. We need to continue on the general path that we are on. We
are winning, slowly but surely, a war that will only be possible to win in toto
after generations have passed.
Go Back to the Start, Do Not Collect $200 Send me your two cents
|
|